Equity · cumulative % from the start of the record
Shaded: out of sample, days never used to build or tune the strategy. Band: the middle 90% of 2,000 paths with the same daily returns in a resampled order.
Statistics
- Total return
- +7.0%
- Sharpe
- 2.43annualised
- Sortino
- 3.34annualised
- Max drawdown
- −4.55%peak to trough, % of starting capital
- Worst day
- −2.41%30 Aug 2026
- Worst month
- −1.51%Aug 2026
- Days
- 104
Total return, Sharpe, max drawdown and days are the record’s own figures. Sortino, worst day, worst month are computed on this page from its daily series, annualised at the series’ own 365 observations a year. CAGR is omitted: the record spans less than a year.
In sample and out of sample
| Stretch | Dates | Return | Sharpe | Max drawdown | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out-of-sample: never used to choose the rule | 30 Jun 2026 – 12 Oct 2026 | +7.0% | 2.43 | −4.6% | 104 |
Monte Carlo · 2,000 resampled paths
| Over the next | Chance of a loss | Return, 5th / 50th / 95th percentile | Max drawdown, typical / 1 in 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 days | 7% | −0.9% / +6.3% / +12.5% | −4.4% / −6.9% |
| 180 days | 2% | +2.5% / +12.6% / +21.3% | −4.6% / −8.4% |
| 365 days | <1% | +11.0% / +25.1% / +37.6% | −5.4% / −9.5% |
Daily returns of the out-of-sample days (104 days), resampled in blocks of about ten days. Resampling reorders the days this record had; it cannot add a market it never saw.
Drawdown · peak to trough, % of starting capital
Rolling Sharpe · 21-day window, annualised
Monthly returns
Outlined months are partial: the record starts or ends inside them.
How this was tested
- This is a backtest: the strategy simulated over historical market data. No money was traded.
- It covers 30 Jun 2026 to 12 Oct 2026, 104 days in the record.
- Returns are measured as % of starting capital.
- Costs: hourly checks (no intra-hour history on Hyperliquid), filled at the hourly close. Half the fills at the maker fee, half at the taker fee plus 2 bps slippage; funding charged on both legs. $8,000 book: 20 pairs at $200 a leg. No compounding. Open trades are marked to market every hour.
- Out-of-sample: no day in this window was used to build or tune the strategy.
Record: Backtest · Hyperliquid · 104 days · net of costs · out-of-sample. Exported 14 Oct 2026 from platform commit c6e04beb (ML-Stat-Arb-Signal-Service ops/pulsar_intrabar.py (branch pulsar-intrabar-5m): monthly point-in-time screen, delisted coins included, 703 trades).